- Emissions heading for 2.8°C warming
The world’s efforts to combat the climate crisis are dangerously off course, according to the United Na-tions Environment Programme (UNEP) in its Emissions Gap Report 2025.
The report, subtitled “continued collective inaction puts global temperature goal at risk”, warns that based on “policies currently in place, the world is heading for up to 2.8°C of warming”.
The report delivers a stark warning for the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal, stating that “the multi-decadal average of global temperature will now exceed 1.5°C, very likely within the next decade”.
The report addresses regional vulnerabilities, emphasizing that while climate impacts are “harming all nations,” they are “hitting the poorest and most vulnerable the hardest”. Africa, despite contributing minimally to global emissions, remains highly exposed. The African Union, a G20 member, is noted but not assessed because it “does not have a union-wide NDC”.
Global greenhouse gas emissions reached a record 57.7 billion tonnes of Cabon Dioxide (CO2) in 2024, a 2.3 per cent increase from 2023 levels. UNEP notes that this rate of growth is “more than four times higher than the annual average growth rate in the 2010s (0.6 per cent per year)”.
The increase was largely driven by land use. “Global net land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions increased by 21 per cent in 2024, and were responsible for 53 per cent of the overall increase in global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions”. Fossil fuel CO2 also rose by 1.1 per cent, contributing 36 per cent of the global GHG increase.
The report highlights the inadequacy of current pledges, noting that only “about a third of parties to the Paris Agreement submitted new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) by 30 September 2025”. Even full implementation of these pledges would still only limit warming to 2.3–2.5°C.
The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025 warns that the world is on track for a 2.8°C temperature rise, far exceeding the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement. Such warming would trigger more frequent and in-tense heatwaves, storms, droughts, and floods, while threatening ecosystems and accelerating sea-level rise. Human societies, particularly in the poorest and most vulnerable regions, would face heightened risks to food security, health, and livelihoods. Africa and other low-emission regions are especially ex-posed, despite contributing minimally to global greenhouse gas emissions.
The economic and governance implications are equally severe. Infrastructure, agriculture, and coastal cities will incur escalating costs, while businesses and energy sectors face growing uncertainty. With only a third of countries submitting updated climate pledges and emission cuts falling short, the report high-lights the urgent need for immediate, large-scale action. Failure to act swiftly could trigger irreversible climate feedbacks, narrowing the window to limit warming and increasing the global burden of adapta-tion, particularly on vulnerable nations.
To limit the temperature overshoot and return to 1.5°C by 2100 with a 66 per cent chance, unprece-dented emission reductions are required: “2030 emissions [must be cut] by 26 per cent and 2035 emis-sions by 46 per cent, compared with 2019 levels”.
