- – Botswana braces for drought
- – Experts warn of an exceptionally swift transition to a high-risk weather pattern
– Severe pressure expected on dams and reservoirs as evaporation accelerates
– Maize yields and rain-fed farming systems face significant declines
– Deteriorating grazing land and shrinking water sources imperil cattle herds
– Authorities urge heatwave precautions to protect vulnerable
Botswana is heading into a high-risk rainfall season as climatologists and international weather experts warn of an emerging El Niño pattern expected to drive below-normal rainfall, rising temperatures, and growing pressure on water and food systems across the country.
The warning comes from the Department of Meteorological Services under the Ministry of Environment and Tourism, where Chief Meteorologist John Stegling says conditions are rapidly shifting into a potentially dangerous climate phase.
“We are just coming out of a stable neutral phase after two years of La Niña,” Stegling said in an interview. “Now, we are expecting the upcoming rainfall season to be an El Niño year. We have a greater than 90% chance that it is going to happen. That is a very, very high chance.”
His assessment is supported by projections from the World Meteorological Organization, which has warned of an “exceptionally swift” transition in the tropical Pacific Ocean. According to the WMO, there is an 80 percent probability of El Niño conditions developing between June and August 2026, with the likelihood rising to around 90 percent through November.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that develops when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become significantly warmer than average, disrupting global weather patterns.
According to the WMO, sea surface temperatures in the key Niño 3.4 monitoring region have already risen to between 0.8°C and 0.9°C above normal. Scientists are particularly concerned by a large reservoir of heat beneath the ocean surface, where temperatures are more than 6°C above average in some areas.
The WMO attributes this subsurface warming to a downwelling Kelvin wave generated by strong westerly wind anomalies. Experts say the presence of this heat reserve increases the likelihood that warming at the surface will continue and strengthen in the coming months.
Climate scientists have also noted that any El Niño developing this year is doing so against a backdrop of record-high global ocean temperatures, potentially amplifying its impacts around the world.
While El Niño often brings wetter-than-normal conditions to parts of East Africa and South America, Southern Africa historically experiences the opposite effect, with below-average rainfall, drought conditions and intense heatwaves.
Stegling said Botswana faces a range of risks if the phenomenon develops as forecast.
Water resources could come under severe pressure as reduced rainfall limits replenishment of dams and reservoirs while high temperatures accelerate evaporation.
Agriculture is also expected to be affected, particularly rain-fed farming systems.
“Some crops cannot withstand the high temperatures during an El Niño year, especially crops like maize,” Stegling said, warning that agricultural yields could decline significantly.
Livestock and wildlife populations may also suffer as grazing areas deteriorate and water sources shrink. Previous drought periods associated with El Niño have resulted in cattle deaths, declining animal body condition and reduced market values for farmers.
Public health concerns are also expected to rise. Extreme heat can increase cases of heat stress and heat stroke, particularly among vulnerable groups such as children, older people and those working outdoors.
Meteorologists point to previous El Niño episodes as examples of the disruption the phenomenon can cause in Botswana and the wider region.
The 2015–2016 “Super El Niño” remains one of the strongest on record. During that period, temperatures in the central Pacific reached approximately 3°C above average. According to Nkemelang et al. (2018), Botswana experienced severe drought conditions and a major water crisis as the Gaborone Dam dropped to critically low levels.
More recently, the 2023–2024 El Niño event, which peaked at around 2°C above average in the central Pacific, contributed to poor agricultural performance and drought conditions across parts of Southern Africa, according to recent climate impact assessments by Mugiyo et al. (2023) and Singh (2024).
However, Stegling cautioned that the strength of an El Niño does not always determine the scale of its impact locally.
“It doesn’t matter whether the El Niño is a strong one or a moderate one,” he said. “An El Niño can be weak but still have a high impact. Just the presence or the absence of the El Niño historically appears to have more influence on the rainfall performance.”
With forecasts indicating the climate phenomenon could strengthen further toward the end of 2026, authorities are urging communities, farmers and businesses to begin preparing now.
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), safety during extreme heat requires limiting exposure to direct sunlight during peak hours, staying well-hydrated, and wearing protective clothing.
Stegling added that farmers are being encouraged to consult agricultural extension officers and agronomists about drought-tolerant crop varieties and farming practices designed to conserve soil moisture.
Stegling also highlighted the importance of water harvesting systems to capture and store rainfall whenever it occurs, helping communities build resilience against prolonged dry periods.
“The impact will be felt even after the El Niño has passed,” Stegling warned. “After a drought, the vegetation and everything takes time to recover.”
