In tourism studies, short-term events such as wars, disease outbreaks, terrorism, pandemics, political unrest, and natural disasters are known as tourism crises or tourism shocks. These crises disrupt travel patterns and create uncertainty in the tourism industry. The current war involving Iran is one such crisis. Although the conflict is taking place far from Southern Africa, it is still likely to affect Botswana and the Okavango Delta through rising costs and weaker global demand.
One of the main effects of tourism crises is a decline in tourist arrivals. During times of war or instability, many people postpone or cancel their trips because they fear insecurity or because travel becomes more expensive. The Iran conflict has already pushed up global oil prices, which affects tourism worldwide.
Since airlines depend heavily on jet fuel, higher oil prices lead to higher airfares. Hotels, transport companies, and tour operators also raise prices to cover their increasing operating costs. Another major effect is reduced airline connectivity. When fuel costs rise and fewer people travel, airlines often reduce the number of flights they operate. Some routes are cancelled, while others become less frequent. This makes travel more difficult and more expensive.
Botswana is particularly vulnerable because it depends heavily on long-haul international tourists from Europe, North America, and Asia. Most visitors travel through South Africa, especially via OR Tambo International Airport, before connecting to Botswana. If airlines reduce routes or increase fares, fewer tourists may decide to visit Botswana. The Okavango Delta may be especially affected because safari tourism depends largely on international visitors with high travel budgets.
Botswana safaris are already expensive, and rising transport costs could make them even less affordable. Some travelers may delay or cancel their safari holidays, while others may shorten their stay or choose cheaper travel packages. Mid-range safari operators are likely to suffer more than luxury lodges because their customers are more sensitive to higher prices. Wealthier tourists are generally more able to continue travelling despite rising costs.
Higher oil prices will also increase transport costs inside Botswana. Since Botswana imports most of its fuel, increases in global oil prices affect road transport, safari vehicles, boats, charter flights, and lodge operations. Tourism businesses may therefore be forced to raise their prices. Fuel price increases have already affected transport operators and consumers in Botswana. Domestic tourism may also decline. As petrol prices, bus fares, and food prices rise, many Batswana may travel less within the country. Families may postpone holidays or reduce spending on tourism activities.
Tourist behaviour is also likely to change. During crises, tourists often book later, choose safer destinations, and prefer shorter or cheaper holidays. Some may switch from long-distance international travel to domestic or regional trips. However, Botswana is unlikely to experience a complete collapse in tourism. The country remains far from the conflict zone and is still seen as a safe destination. The Okavango Delta continues to attract international visitors because of its reputation as a unique and premium safari destination. The biggest threat is therefore not safety, but the indirect effects of the war through higher fuel prices, rising travel costs, and weaker demand for travel.
Finally, Botswana should develop a comprehensive destination crisis management strategy to help the tourism sector prepare for and respond to shocks such as wars, pandemics, and fuel price increases. It should also strengthen or establish dedicated institutions to coordinate crisis response, protect tourism businesses, and maintain Botswana’s image as a safe and resilient destination.
