- – Conditions set to dominate the country’ s rainfall season from October 2026 to March 2027
- – Increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall, prolonged dry spells and above-normal temperatures projected
- – Public urged to prepare for below-normal rainfall, prolonged dry spells, extreme heat and an elevated risk of destructive wildland fires
- – Government calls for proactive measures to mitigate the effects
The Department of Meteorological Services has warned that the country faces a greater than 90 percent probability of experiencing El Niño conditions during the 2026/27 summer rainfall season, with authorities urging all sectors to prepare for below-normal rainfall, prolonged dry spells, extreme heat and an elevated risk of destructive wildland fires.
In a press statement issued on Thursday, the Ministry of Environment and Tourism, through the Department of Meteorological Services (DMS), said the 2026/27 Seasonal Rainfall Outlook indicates that El Niño conditions are expected to dominate the country’s rainfall season from October 2026 to March 2027.
The ministry said the seasonal outlook projects an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall, prolonged dry spells and above-normal temperatures across much of Botswana. Although rainfall is still expected, officials warned that it is likely to be erratic, with longer dry periods and greater climate variability.
The latest government advisory reinforces earlier warnings by Chief Meteorologist John Stegling, who recently said Botswana was transitioning from a neutral climate phase following two years of La Niña into an El Niño year.
The forecast also aligns with projections by the World Meteorological Organization, which has reported an exceptionally rapid warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean and estimates a 90 percent probability that El Niño conditions will be established by late 2026.
While previous warnings focused largely on drought, water shortages and agricultural impacts, the latest update highlights an additional major concern: an increased risk of widespread veld and forest fires.
Officials said Botswana enters the coming dry season with exceptionally high fuel loads following the favourable rains received during the previous season. The abundant growth of grasses and other vegetation has left large quantities of combustible material across rangelands, forests, protected areas and communal grazing lands.
Combined with the anticipated hot, dry and windy conditions, authorities warn that these fuel loads could significantly increase the likelihood of large, fast-moving and high-intensity wildland fires during the peak fire season beginning in August.
The ministry warned that such fires could threaten communities, biodiversity, tourism assets, infrastructure and rural livelihoods if preventative measures are not taken.
Government says agriculture remains one of the sectors most at risk. Delayed rainfall and prolonged dry spells are expected to reduce crop production, particularly staple crops such as maize and sorghum, with potential consequences for household food security.
Water resources are also expected to come under increasing pressure as high temperatures accelerate evaporation from dams, rivers and groundwater supplies while reducing natural replenishment.
Livestock production could also suffer as grazing conditions deteriorate and water sources become scarce, affecting animal health and rural livelihoods.
The ministry further warned that above-normal temperatures and heatwaves may increase the incidence of heat-related illnesses, particularly among children, the elderly, outdoor workers and other vulnerable groups.
Stegling has previously cautioned that the severity of local impacts is not always determined by how strong an El Niño becomes.
“It doesn’t matter whether the El Niño is a strong one or a moderate one,” he said. “An El Niño can be weak but still have a high impact. Just the presence or the absence of the El Niño historically appears to have more influence on the rainfall performance.”
The Ministry of Environment and Tourism is calling on government departments, local authorities, emergency services, farmers, livestock owners, community leaders, the private sector and the public to begin implementing preparedness measures immediately.
These include conserving water, protecting strategic water supplies, activating drought preparedness plans, safeguarding livestock and strengthening wildland fire prevention and response strategies.
Communities are also being urged to report veld fires immediately, comply with fire prevention regulations and support local fire management initiatives, with the ministry noting that early detection and rapid response remain the most effective ways of limiting wildfire damage.
The Department of Meteorological Services said it will continue monitoring oceanic and atmospheric conditions and will issue updated seasonal forecasts, advisories and early warning information as the rainfall season approaches.
