Botswana’s tourism sector faces mounting uncertainty just weeks before the May peak season, with operators warning that rising fuel prices and global disruptions could reverse hard-won recovery gains—particularly in the North West, the nation’s tourism capital.
Local businessman and investor Reaboka Mbulawa say the industry is already reeling, describing the situation as a return to the instability last seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. According to Mbulawa, fuel hikes are cascading through every facet of operations. He noted that the cost of transporting waste out of parks from Kasane to Savuti has doubled, spiking expenses at a time when most travel packages have already been sold. This inability to adjust pricing mid-season has created a critical bottleneck.
Mbulawa believes these pressures could reduce traffic to Botswana, especially among mid-range travelers. “We are already crying about the packages that we have booked. It’s as if we are going back to where COVID left us,” he said.
Kenson Kgaga, Chairperson of the Botswana Guides Association (BOGA), added that many operators are locked into rates for bookings made up to three years in advance, covering 2025 through 2027. Because these contracts are signed, operators must absorb the massive deficit created by surging operational costs. Kgaga warned this financial “fallout” will inevitably impact every sector, including future travel package charges.
Beyond local logistics, the price hike threatens Botswana’s global competitiveness. Kgaga revealed that international travel agents may soon face a “margin squeeze.” If local operators raise prices for new bookings to cover costs, commission margins for global agents will shrink. This could drive agents to redirect tourists toward neighboring countries with lower costs, effectively pricing Botswana out of the regional market.
These concerns emerge as the industry prepares for the high season, when international visitors traditionally flock to the Okavango Delta and Chobe. The North West District, which relies heavily on safari tourism, stands to be the hardest hit if visitor numbers or spending declines.
Fuel price hikes announced in late March by the Botswana Energy Regulatory Authority (BERA) have intensified this pressure, as safari logistics rely heavily on road transport. Globally, the sector is also grappling with volatile prices driven by geopolitical tensions. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), long-haul airfares have surged as airlines introduce fuel surcharges. Consequently, travel trends are shifting, with tourists opting for fewer destinations and more cost-sensitive planning.
Statistics Botswana data illustrates the stakes: in the first quarter of 2024 alone, the country recorded 267,805 tourist arrivals. This pattern could shift if rising costs force tourists to shorten stays or choose closer destinations.
Operators fear that sustained high fuel costs through the peak season could lead to reduced bookings, tighter margins, and potential job losses in communities where tourism is the primary economic driver. While industry players hope for market stability, analysts warn that damage to the 2026 season may already be underway.
