- researchers warn of changing hydrology, crustal deformation, and climate variability
Leading researchers have raised alarm over the long-term stability of the Okavango Delta, pointing to changing hydrology, crustal deformation, and climate variability as emerging threats to one of the world’s largest inland wetlands.
The concerns surfaced at a research workshop hosted by the Okavango Research Institute (ORI) and The Alkaline Wetlands Joint Project in Maun this week.
Dr Mike Murray-Hudson from ORI outlined the Delta’s dependency on seasonal and multi-decadal inflow patterns.
“The Delta’s extraordinary biodiversity is tightly linked to the rhythm of its floodwaters,” he explained. “Any sustained decline in inflows, especially due to upstream groundwater abstraction or climate change, could collapse key ecological systems.”
The warning was echoed in a presentation on crustal deformation by Dr Olivier Dautreuil and his team, who found that tectonic activity is slowly altering the floodplains.
“We observed that the deformation pattern of the Okavango Graben is shifting water flow eastward,” said Dautreuil. “This may contribute to loss of endorheism through the capture of Okavango-Selinda by Zambezi-Lenyanti and change the direction of surface water, potentially draining the Delta over time.”
Further concern was raised over human-induced environmental pressures. Climate researcher Mangaliso Gondwe reported elevated greenhouse gas fluxes in areas where water retention has declined.
“As the Delta dries, its role as a carbon sink is threatened, turning it into a source of emissions instead,” he warned.
According to him, Climate change is predicted to reduce water inflow into the Delta by affecting precipitation and evapotranspiration in the basin. This will affect the flooding extent, the total size (area) of the Delta, and its carbon fluxes.
Edwin Mosimanyana also from ORI, warns that the riparian communities on the fringes of the Delta will be disproportionately affected by any developments in the basin with a potential to reduce the quantity of inflows to the Delta.
“Moreover, Global climate change impacts will further exacerbate the precarious situation. Continuous non-inundation periods will deprive them of surface water, together with overall reduction in subsurface water storage.”
He added, “the pressure on subsurface storage will be further increased by the expected general increase in evapotranspiration rates. The lack of surface water will result in no flushing of the solutes precipitated out due to evapotranspiration, negatively affecting soil salinity and nutrient availability.”
The consensus from researchers is sobering: a combination of reduced flood inflow, shifting geology, and climate-driven stressors could lead to the gradual disappearance of the Delta. “This is not a far-off scenario,” one presenter noted. “We’re already seeing ecological warning signs—declining wetland coverage, increased salinity, and strain on aquatic life.”
As Botswana’s environmental gem faces an uncertain future, scientists called for urgent hydrological monitoring, conservation action, and regional cooperation to protect the Delta’s lifeline.
