As global demand for minerals critical to clean energy and advanced technologies accelerates, Botswana’s under-explored rare earth deposits could represent a significant new revenue stream if developed responsibly and strategically an analysis of national policy direction under NDP 12 and reinforced by fiscal commitments in the 2026 Budget.
During the NDP 12 meeting on October 20, 2025, Minister of Minerals and Energy Bogolo Kenewendo made it clear that Botswana must transition from what she described as a “mono-commodity economy.” With diamonds facing price volatility and weakening global demand, the minister positioned critical minerals including rare earth metals as central to a new growth strategy aimed at strengthening Botswana’s global competitiveness. The 2026 Budget Speech echoed this direction, framing the country’s “True North” as an economically diversified and export-driven Botswana, with mining diversification at the core of that transformation.
Rare earth elements are strategically important in the global economy. The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its reports on critical minerals and supply chains, highlights rare earths as essential to electric vehicles, wind turbines and advanced energy technologies that underpin the clean energy transition.
Market forecasts indicate strong commercial potential, with industry projections estimating that the global rare earth metals market could grow from approximately US $6.4 billion in 2024 to about US $11.3 billion by 2030, reflecting sustained demand from electrification and renewable energy expansion. For Botswana, even modest participation in such a growing market could represent significant export earnings and foreign exchange diversification.
Crucially, government policy is not focused solely on extraction. Under NDP 12, the Minister outlined a “mineral resources development exploration, exploitation and value chain strategy” that prioritises beneficiation and value chain development for minerals such as manganese, rare earth metals, salt and soda ash. This approach aligns with the 2026 Budget’s emphasis on manufacturing as the “bridge between primary production and exports.”
Through the Botswana Economic Transformation Programme (BETP), 22 manufacturing projects have been prioritised, targeting resource-based industries designed to link mining output to higher-value goods. If rare earth deposits prove commercially viable, domestic processing and separation facilities could significantly increase revenue retention compared to exporting raw concentrates.
Fiscal commitment appears to reflect this strategic priority. The Ministry of Minerals and Energy received the largest share of the proposed Ministerial Development Budget for 2026/2027, amounting to P5.23 billion. While the Budget warns of fragile public finances and declining mineral revenue due to a weak diamond market, the allocation signals recognition that future revenue resilience will depend on broadening the mineral base. In this context, rare earths are positioned as part of a forward-looking diversification strategy rather than a speculative sideline.
Exploration and regulatory reform also form part of the government’s plan. Minister Kenewendo set a target to increase mineral exploration activity from the current 30 percent level to unlock responsible extraction opportunities. Amendments to the Mines and Minerals Act are intended to facilitate development of smaller deposits and modernise the regulatory framework, potentially making it easier to attract private capital into critical minerals projects. The 2026 Budget reinforces this by emphasising disciplined execution, private initiative and productivity in high-potential sectors.
Botswana’s geological mapping has already identified carbonatite complexes in areas such as Kang, Xade, Werda and Tshane — rock formations globally known to host rare earth mineralisation. While commercial extraction has yet to begin, the policy environment now signals intent to move from potential to development. In a global landscape where countries are seeking stable and diversified suppliers of critical minerals, Botswana’s political stability and track record of mineral governance could strengthen investor confidence.
