African Union Member States continue to shoulder nearly the entire global malaria burden, accounting for 96% of cases and 97% of deaths worldwide, according to the African Union Malaria Progress Report 2025.
While a handful of countries including Botswana, are being recognised for staying on course toward near-term targets, the continent as a whole remains off track to eliminate malaria by 2030.
The report shows that in 2024 Africa recorded 270.8 million malaria cases and 594,119 deaths, with progress largely stalled since 2015. Only three countries are fully on track to meet the 2025 Catalytic Framework targets, underscoring the widening gap between ambition and reality.
Speaking at the recent AU Summit, Botswana’s President and Chair of African Leaders Malaria Alliance, Duma Gideon Boko, warned that the situation demands urgent collective resolve.
“Representing 96% and 97% of the global total respectively. While we celebrate the success of member states like Rwanda, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Botswana and Eswatini, who are on track to meet our 2025 targets, the reality is that Africa as a whole remains off track to achieve elimination by 2030,” Boko said.
“As many of our countries negotiate bilateral agreements with our partners, it is clear that Africa must be defiant against malaria. We must develop sustainable financing plans that reflect strong country and regional ownership and that deliver on the promise of universal health coverage, including for malaria. This past year, we, the African heads of state and government, have taken the lead in calling for a big push to end malaria.”
The AU report paints a picture of converging threats. Official Development Assistance declined by 21% in 2025, while the Global Fund’s Eighth Replenishment fell billions short of its target. The report warns that a 30% reduction in malaria financing could result in 146 million additional cases and nearly 400,000 preventable deaths by 2030, costing African economies an estimated $37 billion in GDP.
At the same time, malaria control is becoming more complex. Insecticide and drug resistance are increasing, climate change is expanding mosquito breeding zones, and humanitarian crises are disrupting health systems. Displacement across Africa has risen sharply over the past decade, with many vulnerable populations living in high-transmission rural areas.
Despite these pressures, the technical toolkit has strengthened. In 2025, 74% of insecticide-treated nets distributed were next-generation dual active-ingredient nets, far more effective against resistant mosquitoes. Twenty-four countries have introduced malaria vaccines, with 28.3 million doses distributed this year alone.
Yet innovation alone is not enough without sustained financing and coordinated leadership.
Botswana is cited among countries that remain on track toward their 2025 milestones, reflecting years of sustained investment in surveillance, targeted interventions and strong political backing.
The country has significantly reduced malaria transmission over the past decade and continues to refine its National Malaria Strategic Plan, emphasising subnational targeting, strengthened data systems and cross-border coordination.
However, Botswana’s experience also illustrates the fragility of progress. Increased rainfall in parts of Southern Africa in 2025 triggered malaria surges in several countries, including Botswana, placing renewed pressure on health systems. The AU report notes that climate-related upsurges are becoming more frequent and unpredictable, particularly in Southern Africa.
For Botswana, maintaining elimination momentum now depends on rapid detection of outbreaks, sustained vector control, and protecting domestic financing amid global funding volatility.
The 2025 AU Summit reinforced a shift toward health sovereignty and domestic resource mobilisation. End Malaria Councils across the continent have mobilised more than $186 million in commitments, while governments are being urged to create dedicated malaria budget lines and explore innovative financing mechanisms.
President Boko’s remarks at the summit reflected this broader continental pivot.
Africa, he argued, must not rely solely on external partners but must assert ownership over its malaria response through integrated health systems and sustainable funding models.
The AU’s “Big Push Against Malaria” framework calls for stronger accountability, better use of real-time data, expansion of vaccines and next-generation tools, and improved coordination between governments, regional bodies and global partners.
The report delivers a dual message: Africa has never had better tools to fight malaria, but it has also never faced such a complex convergence of threats.
Botswana’s inclusion among countries meeting near-term targets offers cautious optimism. Yet the broader continental trajectory suggests that without urgent and sustained financing, elimination by 2030 will remain out of reach.
As African leaders push for a renewed commitment to malaria control, the coming years will test whether political momentum and innovation can overcome funding gaps and emerging risks — or whether hard-won gains risk reversal.
